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The once and future Hurricane Gustav—currently a tropical storm over Haiti—could attack the U.S. Gulf Coast as a major hurricane this weekend. Or not.
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Track Hurricane Gustav ("God's Staff") Live on Weather.com
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurrican...008/gustav.html
- Hurricane Forecasters Stick to "Busy" 2008 Prediction (June 3, 2008)
- Hurricane Photos
- Tropical Storm Fay's Land-Hugging Path Kept It Weak (August 21, 2008)
High-pressure "ridges" repel storms, so if the developing ridge north of Cuba is strong, Gustav could be deflected westward and into the central Gulf of Mexico, where vast stretches of warm water could supercharge the storm as it heads for the U.S. coast.
But if the high-pressure system wanes, Gustav could turn north, unimpeded, and move overland, across Cuba. The temporary lack of contact with warm water would deprive it of power.
From Storm to Hurricane to Storm … to Hurricane?
Gustav began as a tropical depression in the eastern Caribbean Sea on Monday and quickly intensified into a Category 1 hurricane with winds of about 90 miles (145 kilometers) an hour.
Gustav hit shore Tuesday in Haiti and has been blamed for at least 17 deaths there and the neighboring Dominican Republic.
The passage over Haiti's mountains weakened Gustav's winds to about 60 miles (100 kilometers) an hour, reducing it to tropical storm status.
As of Wednesday morning, the center of Gustav was nearly stationary over Haiti. But the storm is expected to start moving westward later in the day. That would put it over the very warm waters of the Caribbean, and forecasters think Gustav will quickly regain its status as a Category 1 hurricane, with wind speeds between 74 and 95 miles an hour (119 and 153 kilometers an hour).
By early Saturday, Gustav is predicted to be just off the coast of western Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane, with winds between 110 and 130 miles (177 and 209 kilometers) an hour.
Where it goes from there—and how intense it becomes—is less certain.
- Hurricane Forecasters Stick to "Busy" 2008 Prediction (June 3, 2008)
- Hurricane Photos
- Tropical Storm Fay's Land-Hugging Path Kept It Weak (August 21, 2008)
"Once it starts moving, it will move west-northwest under the southern periphery of that ridge," said Rebecca Waddlington, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
"If the ridge gets stronger, that will keep Gustav moving farther west. If it gets weaker, the storm will move more to the north."
There is "no way of knowing" at present how the high-pressure ridge is going to evolve, Waddlington said. The present long-range forecast says Gustav could come ashore anywhere from the central Florida Panhandle to the Texas-Mexico border.
A hurricane will move along the edge of a high-pressure system until the storm finds a weak spot. Then the hurricane will move toward the weakness as though a door had suddenly opened.
Hurricanes "want to go to the weakest path they can find," said Gary Beeler, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Mobile, Alabama, said.
Plenty of Energy
To intensify, storms need water that is at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit (about 27 degrees Celsius). The warmer the water is, the more the hurricane can intensify.
Jeff Garmon, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Mobile, Alabama, said the water temperature in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico is currently as high as 89 degrees Fahrenheit (32 degrees Celsius) in some places.
"There's plenty of potential energy for Gustav to feed off of," Garmon said.
Even if a hurricane has warm water in front of it, however, upper-level winds known as wind shear can disrupt the storm's development and keep it from strengthening.
But wind shear will be very light over the Caribbean and Gulf for the immediate future, and will not impede Gustav's development, Garmon and Waddlington, of the National Hurricane Center, said.
Hard to Predict
There is always uncertainty about the path a hurricane will take, especially longer-term forecasts.
"It's a foregone conclusion that the forecast will have an error in the track," Garmon said. "That's what makes forecasting the intensity so hard." "I'd like to stress that we don't start getting really confident [about landfall location] until it's two or three days out," he said. "That's when you see the whites of its eyes."
"It's not time to panic just yet. But it's time to be aware of what's going on and have a plan in place."
Willie Drye is author of Storm of the Century: the Labor Day hurricane of 1935, published by National Geographic Books.
THE LORD IS SHOWING HIS POWER TO THE NATIONS
Luke 21:25 "There will be signs in sun and moon and stars, and on the earth dismay among nations, in perplexity at the roaring of the sea and the waves
Luke 21:24 and they will fall by the edge of the sword, and will be led captive into all the nations; and Jerusalem will be trampled under foot by the Gentiles until the times of the Gentiles are fulfilled.
Luke 21:26 men fainting from fear and the expectation of the things which are coming upon the world; for the powers of the heavens will be shaken
Jeremiah 51:42 "The sea has come up over Babylon; She has been engulfed with its tumultuous waves.
Jeremiah 51:55 For the LORD is going to destroy Babylon, And He will make her loud noise vanish from her. And their waves will roar like many waters; The tumult of their voices sounds forth.
THE DELIVERANCE SHALL COME AS BELIEVERS SEEK THE LORD
Psalm 89:9 You rule the swelling of the sea; When its waves rise, You still them.
Psalm 93:3 The floods have lifted up, O LORD, The floods have lifted up their voice, The floods lift up their pounding waves.
Psalm 93:4 More than the sounds of many waters, Than the mighty breakers of the sea, The LORD on high is mighty.
Psalm 107:29 He caused the storm to be still, So that the waves of the sea were hushed.
Isaiah 17:12 Alas, the uproar of many peoples Who roar like the roaring of the seas, And the rumbling of nations Who rush on like the rumbling of mighty waters!
Isaiah 17:13 The nations rumble on like the rumbling of many waters, But He will rebuke them and they will flee far away, And be chased like chaff in the mountains before the wind, Or like whirling dust before a gale.
JESUS CHRIST IS THE ONLY ANSWER
Matthew 8:26 He said to them, "Why are you afraid, you men of little faith?" Then He got up and rebuked the winds and the sea, and it became perfectly calm
PSALM 107:23-32
23They that go down to the sea in ships, that do business in great waters;
24These see the works of the LORD, and his wonders in the deep.
25For he commandeth, and raiseth the stormy wind, which lifteth up the waves thereof.
26They mount up to the heaven, they go down again to the depths: their soul is melted because of trouble.
27They reel to and fro, and stagger like a drunken man, and are at their wit's end.
28Then they cry unto the LORD in their trouble, and he bringeth them out of their distresses.
29He maketh the storm a calm, so that the waves thereof are still.
30Then are they glad because they be quiet; so he bringeth them unto their desired haven.
31Oh that men would praise the LORD for his goodness, and for his wonderful works to the children of men!
32Let them exalt him also in the congregation of the people, and praise him in the assembly of the elders.
Track Hurricane Gustav ("God's Staff") Live on Weather.com
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And Moses said unto the people, Fear ye not, stand still, and see the salvation of the LORD, which he will show to you to day: Exodus 14:13
And thou didst divide the sea before them, so that they went through the midst of the sea on the dry land; and their persecutors thou threwest into the deeps, as a stone into the mighty waters.
Nehemiah 9:11

They came to Jesus and woke Him up, saying, "Master, Master, we are perishing!" And He got up and rebuked the wind and the surging waves, and they stopped, and it became calm. Luke 8:24
Verily, verily, I say unto you, He that believeth on me, the works that I do shall he do also; and greater works than these shall he do; because I go unto my Father
John 14:12
And all things, whatsoever ye shall ask in prayer, believing, ye shall receive.
Matthew 21:22


