http://www.nysun.com/article/66268?page_no=1

Talk of Worst Recession Since the 1930s
By DAN DORFMAN
November 12, 2007
A D V E R T I S E M E N T
A D V E R T I S E M E N T

After what Los Angeles money manager Arnold Silver called "a brutal three days," the question is: What now for the market?

A Wall Street superstar this year who runs Balestra Capital Partners, Jim Melcher, says he's "worried about a recession. Not a normal one, but a very bad one. The worst since the 1930s. I expect we'll see clear signs of it in six months with a dramatic slowdown in the gross domestic product."

Balestra Capital, a $350 million New York hedge fund, was up 3% for the past three market sessions, when the Dow Jones Industrials, spearheaded by widespread declines in financial stocks and fears of more billion-dollar-plus asset write-downs, tumbled more than 677 points, or about 4.5%. The Nasdaq fared worse, skidding about 7%, triggered by across-the-board declines in those fast-stepping technology stocks.

Balestra has increased in value by 175% so far this year, Mr. Melcher tells me. A 9-year-old fund, it has posted compounded annual growth of about 30% since its inception.

Mr. Melcher, a market bear, had some pretty discouraging words. "What I think is not good for the country, but good for me." he says. His basic advice to the country's roughly 80 million stock players: Run for the hills — the worst is far from over. An investor's stock portfolio now, he believes, should be only about half of what it might normally be.

With the housing market in a state of collapse — and he says he believes it is far from over — Mr. Melcher argues that average homeowners will not be able to withstand the kind of recession he sees, given the added burdens of rising energy and food costs, and continued deterioration in the credit markets.

Noting that consumption is already slowing, Mr. Melcher figures sharply rising unemployment is inevitable. Another of his worries is that central banks around the globe, America's included, are debasing their currencies, which is setting the stage for a new round of higher inflation. Our bear figures the next six to 12 months will be awful for investors as the market goes down "pretty substantially." His frightening outlook calls for an additional 20% to 30% decline from current levels. A drop of that magnitude would put the Dow down in a range of roughly 9,100 to 10,400.

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Asked how he could conceivably give credibility to such an ominous forecast, Mr. Melcher observes: "I've never seen a market with more risk and what's significant is that risk is not yet priced in."

Given his grim expectations, he says there is no equity market in the world he would play right now. "When the American market goes down, other equity markets around the world should follow," he says.

As of now, his portfolio is pretty much devoid of stocks, save for an exchange-traded fund focused on leading companies in oil services, which he regards as an ongoing growth industry. The ETF, the Oil Services Holders Trust, trades on the American Stock Exchange under the symbol OIH. Although enthusiastic about the industry's growth prospects, Mr. Melcher says he would be reluctant to recommend oil services stock because he believes the price of oil could easily drop 50% in the recession he envisions.

Another danger he sees for the market is the prospect of huge withdrawals of funds from America by foreign investors due to the falling dollar, the credit crisis, and a slowing economy.

At the moment, Mr. Melcher's chief investment strategy is shorting stocks and certain bonds, notably mortgage-backed and junk bonds, through the use of derivatives, put options, and credit default swaps. He is also short ABEX, an index of residential mortgage-backed securities.

His short strategy is largely responsible for his super performance this year, as are his holdings in gold. The fact he's sticking to this strategy is evidence that he firmly believes the chaos in the financial markets is far from over. Mr. Melcher is also gung-ho on several currencies, particularly the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen.

The average investor, he believes, should seek to protect his assets by raising cash, putting money to work in short-term treasuries, and buying some gold (notably through StreetTRACKS Gold Trust, an ETF that tracks the price of the precious metal and trades on the Big Board under the symbol GLD).

Is the world coming to an end? I asked our bear. "I don't think so," he replied, "but as I mentioned, the ingredients are in place for the worst kind of a recession, which means it's the wrong time to own stocks."

Hey, '81 I think it was the stock market lost 30% in ONE AFTERNOON! We went on to have one of the greatest economic BOOMS in history.

I remember Professor Sammy Batra's books warning of a horrible depression 20 years ago.

One after another these predictions of mass unemployment have failed since the days of Jimmy Carter (The Worst President--and Worst Ex-President--In U.S. History!), when much of it was actually happening....

Give it a rest.

yes, but

Shekel said that a GREAT DEPRESSION is coming soon........i have confidence in Shekel.

Also don't forget that the bible says that there will be a great economic downfall. This is setting the stage for the anti christ to come and solve the economic crisis so that everyone will hail him as a savior.

Any security in securities should be put to rest for the security of abiding in Christ.

Granted, bad drops in our economy and markets have happened before...

However, never has there been more innocent blood on America's hands, to the tune of over 45 MILLION dead, aborted babies. It is written that the land itself is sickened by such and will vomit out its inhabitants.
When the vomiting begins, not that it probably hasn't already, the economy will go too.

I won't even go into immorality, Godlessness, and idolatry, and not just in the world only.

We'd better be preparing to live independently of all the comforts we, as Americans, have enjoyed for many years. I definitely wouldn't live in the middle of any big city at this point in history. Let's just say I'd rather not tempt God to sustain me in the middle of a fall in America's food and supply infrastructure, given the warnings he seems to be giving us to prepare--not over the top, but doing what is necessary to be of some help and a minister to neighbors who need Christ and didn't see it coming, i.e. 5 loaves and 2 fish... There are some threads in this forum on preparation.

Anyway, let's take advantage of the fact it's still "daytime" and tell someone about Christ while we still can.

May he be glorified.

In Him,

Mike

Amen Mike,
We need to be busy about our Father's business and stop being so preoccupies about all of these things of a
fallen world. We need to be preaching the Good News of the Kingdom. After all, we are not of this world.

In CHrist,
Chris

Does the Bible say that? Where?

3RD SEAL REVELATION CHAPTER 6
5When the Lamb opened the third seal, I heard the third living creature say, "Come!" I looked, and there before me was a black horse! Its rider was holding a pair of scales in his hand. 6Then I heard what sounded like a voice among the four living creatures, saying, "A quarT of wheat for a day's wages, and three quarts of barley for a day's wages, and do not damage the oil and the wine!"
WOW...imagine a loaf of bread costing a day's paycheck....


It's been worse than that before....just prior to the French Revolution...a bread roll cost a month's pay

Germany...prior to WWII....inflation was over 3000%! People burned money for heat because it was worthless...it was during this time there were a few in Germany resorted to eating their fellow Germans...during the Great Depression, there are acounts of people killing and eating cats to feed their families...and any other stray animal they could find...and epidemics of disease were not unheard of as a result of these economic upheavals along with famine...

In each of these examples, the economic hardship triggered violence...and so after this global economic hardship (which may be soon upon us, the global economy is fragile, depending on the dollar and the yen) logically, Death follows...

7When the Lamb opened the fourth seal, I heard the voice of the fourth living creature say, "Come!" 8I looked, and there before me was a pale horse! Its rider was named Death, and Hades was following close behind him. They were given power over a fourth of the earth to kill by sword, famine and plague, and by the wild beasts of the earth.

I can't help but see and hear that God is blowing the Trumpet.

Now as we see the stockmarket...it's ups and downs, people scrambling from nation to nation, forming alliances, much deceit among us(ALL NATIONS coming against Israel...or is there still ONE that be her FRIEND in her darkest hour will one sell their Soul for meat on a Blemished Table?...He has shown us so many things, and yet I see so many people going about their lives as if this HOUR has not come upon us and all is well, as long as it isn't in our own backyard...But the LORD is graceous, we must pray for one another for Discernment, and walk with Jesus as he leads us HOME.

Well money is the root of all evil....for it puts food in our mouths. BUT JESUS IS THE BREAD OF LIFE.
Now as we see the news about the Gaza...turn to the pages of Revelation...They have a pictures of people holding a SPOTTED TOWEL(Praising the anniversary of the death of Arafat maybe secretly for they love the PRAISE OF MAN instead of Praising GOD...or they are truly worshiping a BEAST that was wounded...white and black THE TURBIN ON HIS HEAD...speckled....LEOPARD...and SPECKLED HORSE...there was fighting in the streets and ghashing of teeth...as the people need to be fed with the TRUTH, not the lies of the BEAST.
Funny thing is Abbas was in EYGPT> at the time of the outbreak.
FOR THE BEAST will take away their FOOD so that they take the MARK OF THE BEAST...BUT the BREAD OF LIFE still has his hand stretched out still to TURN to JESUS.

we can NOT mix...we've got to PRESS IN...always to the LORD OUR GOD, whom will give us the wisdom and knowledge and grace to FOLLOW ONLY HIM...for the WHOLE world is deceiving...reach out we must and interceed for those in need...
.
and the Devil knows his time is short and will use every opportunity to bring one to desperation, and then they will sell their souls and take the mark...
Will we?...will we fall LORD for a piece of bread...all rich and poor alike. I pray that we stand in you and listen for your lead and obey you...for you can take what is meant for evil and turn it around for your good...and you will give us a heart to follow you and a discerning spirit...for you will not forsake us nor abandon us in our most hour of need. We lift Israel up to you LORD and know your will be done. And we pray for their safety.

There is a poster in the background of Arafat, Which I said WOW, as I've never really noticed HIS Turbin...WHITE AND BLACK SPECKLED...
and the RHEMA WORDS just keep coming...WAKING UP THE CHURCH....ONE HOUR...
turn to Revelation 13 and continue to read...