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Full Version: If The Weather Can Be Prophesied ... Then What Are The Odds?
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Raptor Witness
Real prophecy can be determined by mathematics. If you care to see the real thing, then follow me on a brief journey ...

If I asked the members here to pick a couple of storms this coming hurricane season, based upon number or name, and then tell me the characteristics of each storm, would you be able to do it?

On July 22, 2007 I proposed a hurricane contest on [another forum] I frequent, called Armageddononline.org. The thread I'm going to take you to is entitled ["2007 Hurricane Season."]? There are a lot of photos of this and that, but the real meat of what I want you to see, is located on [post#4] and [post#5.] I have no moderating rights there and never have, but regardless, any edition is time stamped. It's an interesting little crew of free radicals whose main concern is with the end of the world. Various web crawlers, Webarchive, and Google cache save copies of this work.

The contest I proposed to members of the forum this year listed two simple criteria. Pick the ...

1) Strongest Atlantic storm, in terms of the lowest pressure reached.

2) Most devastating strike on the U.S. mainland, in terms of dollars.


Although the 2007 hurricane season isn't officially over until November, for most weather hounds who follow the season carefully, the upper level winds are so unfavorable right now, that it's difficult to imagine any further serious development, this year.

To figure the odds of getting each and even both questions correct, I put on my thinking cap and have done some rough calculations for the contest. The problem was a lot simpler than I first thought, as it's really a simple equation of proportions. I could be forgetting something, so if any variable is omitted, please fill me in. I've also proposed the equation on a statistical forum for their review and feedback.

According to a recent article in [ScienceDaily,] the long-term average number of named storms in the Atlantic any give year is 10, and the long-term average strike potential on the U.S. mainland is 0.5. This should mean the equation for getting both variables correct is as follows. 10/1 X 10/0.5 =200/1 The odds of getting both Dean and Humberto correct. The odds of getting them in the correct order is further multiplied by 2 for an over all ratio of 400 to 1.

Now I don't know how many here have ever gambled, but I use to play the horses. I played them for years, and I never once hit an Exacta that would of paid me $800 for a $2 wager. I can't recall ever even seeing one, although I imagine that they occur on occasion. However, the field of horses would almost certainly be greater than the number of named storms we've had this season. By the way, an "Exacta" is where you pick the first and second place finishers in a horse race.

Research [the results] for yourselves. Hurricane Dean was indeed the strongest storm in the Atlantic basin this year, at a pressure of 906 millibars, and hurricane Humberto was the costliest to hit the U.S. mainland.

So is my math correct? If it is, then we'll move on the next set of variables, because this goes well beyond a simple hurricane contest. I've got several more related variables to add, which will make the odds of getting these two storms correct, skyrocket.
flyingsquirrel
Intresting post! I remember posting a dream where a record breaking hurricane was to hit India. Here it is:
http://www.christian-forum.net/index.php?showtopic=12015

Dreamed I was shown a very crowded, large, modern city in India. GOD was angry with India, and He wasn't finished punishing India yet, even after the flooding. The worst recorded hurricane ever was going to slam into India and destroy this major city. It's winds will be so powerful it will pick up cars and throw them like straw. I saw all of this happening; then after this dream was over, I was given 3, 3 digit numbers associated with the hurricane. One of them, i think, was 113. I was sitting at a computer and entered in the numbers I was given into a formula that calculated the power of the hurricane. It would be the strongest ever recorded. The scale and power of it was so enormous it seemed like something out of science fiction, it seemed beyond what the physics of earth would allow.
Raptor Witness
QUOTE(flyingsquirrel @ Nov 5 2007, 05:42 PM) [snapback]128457[/snapback]

Intresting post! I remember posting a dream where a record breaking hurricane was to hit India. Here it is:
http://www.christian-forum.net/index.php?showtopic=12015

I remember that storm, and you nailed it. This gift is still alive, and it is very powerful.
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I didn't use a "math equation" to come up with my prediction. I came up with the [number four storm,(see reply 11] which was hurricane Dean, because of an earlier prophecy I made regarding NASA on May 7, 2007, that included a strange picture of a #4 train moving swiftly towards the observer.

If you'll recall, the space shuttle Endeavour abandoned the International Space Station [a day early,] due to that #4 Storm.
In essense, the number four storm made UNIQUE history, because it forced what amounted to a route of the International Space Station, to occur.

According to former astronaut [Buzz Aldrin,] there's only a 1 or 2 percent chance of the space shuttle having to leave a day early due to the weather, generally, which would make the odds of having to leave due to a hurricane even greater.

So you MUST now take the current odds of 400/1 and multiply by Buzz Aldrin's conservative estimate that #4 Dean would route NASA from the International Space Station 400/1 X 50/1 = 20,000 to 1.

Perhaps even more interesting, when Dean is coupled with hurricane Felix, a new historical record was achieved, that being the first time [in HISTORY] that two category 5's have made landfall in a season. Since this hasn't happened in the past hundred + years, when record keeping began, we can conservatively assume that two category 5's making landfall is an event which is likely to occur, at best once every 50 years. Which means that the odds on getting the curious train track configuration and prediction correct, must be far greater. Probably only once every 250 years, if that. So you multiply 250/1 X 20,000/1 = 5,000,000 to 1.

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[Published on May 7, 2007 with the warning ... Remember the number four St. NASA."(see Reply 11)]

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