Since Iraq is anceint Babylon, and for other reasons, I thought that this story may be of prophetic significance if it ever happened. (Hopefully not for their sakes.)


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Iraq dam failure to kill up to 500,000

Failure could unleash a trillion-gallon wave of water, killing up to 500,000


By Amit R. Paley
The Washington Post
Updated: 11:22 p.m. PT Oct 29, 2007


AT THE MOSUL DAM, Iraq - The largest dam in Iraq is in serious danger of
an imminent collapse that could unleash a trillion-gallon wave of water,
possibly killing thousands of people and flooding two of the largest
cities in the country, according to new assessments by the U.S. Army
Corps of Engineers and other U.S. officials.


Even in a country gripped by daily bloodshed, the possibility of a
catastrophic failure of the Mosul Dam has alarmed American officials,
who have concluded that it could lead to as many as 500,000 civilian
deaths by drowning Mosul under 65 feet of water and parts of Baghdad
under 15 feet, said Abdulkhalik Thanoon Ayoub, the dam manager. "The
Mosul dam is judged to have an unacceptable annual failure probability,"
in the dry wording of an Army Corps of Engineers draft report.


At the same time, a U.S. reconstruction project to help shore up the dam
in northern Iraq has been marred by incompetence and mismanagement,
according to Iraqi officials and a report by a U.S. oversight agency to
be released Tuesday. The reconstruction project, worth at least $27
million, was not intended to be a permanent solution to the dam's
deficiencies.


"In terms of internal erosion potential of the foundation, Mosul Dam is
the most dangerous dam in the world," the Army Corps concluded in
September 2006, according to the report to be released Tuesday. "If a
small problem [at] Mosul Dam occurs, failure is likely."


Behind-the-scenes wrangling


The effort to prevent a failure of the dam has been complicated by
behind-the-scenes wrangling between Iraqi and U.S. officials over the
severity of the problem and how much money should be allocated to fix
it. The Army Corps has recommended building a second dam downstream as a
fail-safe measure, but Iraqi officials have rejected the proposal,
arguing that it is unnecessary and too expensive.


The debate has taken place largely out of public view because both Iraqi
and U.S. Embassy officials have refused to discuss the details of safety
studies -- commissioned by the U.S. government for at least $6 million
-- so as not to frighten Iraqi citizens. Portions of the draft report
were read to The Washington Post by an Army Corps official who spoke on
condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. The
Post also reviewed an Army Corps PowerPoint presentation on the dam.


"The Army Corps of Engineers determined that the dam presented
unacceptable risks," U.S. Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker and Gen. David H.
Petraeus, the U.S. commander in Iraq, wrote in a May 3 letter to Prime
Minister Nouri al-Maliki. "Assuming a worst-case scenario, an
instantaneous failure of Mosul Dam filled to its maximum operating level
could result in a flood wave 20 meters deep at the City of Mosul, which
would result in a significant loss of life and property."


Fundamental problem


Sitting in a picturesque valley 45 miles along the Tigris River north of
Mosul, the earthen dam has one fundamental problem: It was built on top
of gypsum, which dissolves when it comes into contact with water.


Almost immediately after the dam was completed in the early 1980s,
engineers began injecting the dam with grout, a liquefied mixture of
cement and other additives. More than 50,000 tons of material have been
pumped into the dam since then in a continual effort to prevent the
structure, which can hold up to 3 trillion gallons of water, from
collapsing.


After the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, American officials began to
study risks posed by the dam, which they said were underestimated by Iraqis.


"Iraqi government believes dam is safe," concluded a 32-page PowerPoint
presentation prepared by the Army Corps and dated December 2006.


On a tour of the dam on a recent blistering afternoon, Ayoub, the
manager, contended that the dam was safe but acknowledged the unusual
problems with it.


Seepage from the dam funnels into a gushing stream of water that
engineers monitor to determine the severity of the leakage. Twenty-four
clanging machines churn 24 hours a day to pump grout deep into the dam's
base. And sinkholes form periodically as the gypsum dissolves beneath
the structure.


"You cannot find any other dam in the world like this," said Ayoub, a
mustachioed man in a dark business suit who has worked at the dam since
1983 and has managed it since 1989.


Apocalyptic predictions


About two years ago, Ayoub became concerned that the pressure of the
water was putting the dam at risk of failure. So he ordered that the
dam's water level, which can reach 330 meters above sea level, not
exceed 319 meters.


But reports prepared by the Army Corps of Engineers began to raise new
alarms.


"Mosul Dam is 'unsafe' in any definition," the PowerPoint presentation
said. It added: "Condition continually degrading" and "Failure mode is
credible." Under a section labeled "Consequences of Failure," it says:
"Mass civilian fatalities."


Ayoub said U.S. officials spoke in person about the dam in even more
apocalyptic terms. "They went to the Ministry of Water Resources and
told them that the dam could collapse any day," he said.


The report so alarmed the governor of Nineveh province, where the dam is
located, that he asked that it be drained of all water immediately,
Ayoub said.


Ayoub said he agrees that the most catastrophic collapse of the dam
could kill 500,000 people, but he said U.S. officials have not convinced
him that the structure is at high risk of collapse. "The Americans may
very well be right about the danger," Ayoub said. "I think it is safe
enough that my office is in the flood plain."


In an interview Monday night, Abdul Latif Rashid, Iraq's minister of
water resources, said that he believed the safety situation was not
critical and that he was more inclined to trust his engineers than
American reports.


"Is the dam going to collapse tomorrow?" Rashid said. "I can't tell you
that. Let us hope that we avoid a disaster and focus now on a solution."


Stopgap measure?


The Army Corps has recommended that a partially constructed dam at
Badush, which lies between Mosul Dam and the city, be finished as a
stopgap measure in case Mosul Dam collapses.


But Salar Bakir Sami, director general of planning and development at
the Water Resources Ministry, said Iraqi government officials do not
think it is necessary to spend the estimated $10 billion for such a
project. Instead, he said, the ministry planned to spend $300 million to
construct a smaller version of the Badush dam that would generate
electricity and provide irrigation, but not serve as a safety valve in
case Mosul Dam breaks.


Rashid said his top priority is to fix Mosul Dam by building a concrete
wall at its foundation that should shore up the design and provide "a
permanent solution." He said experts have just discovered cutting-edge
technology that would allow such a wall to be built, perhaps with
construction starting by next year at a cost of less than $1 billion.


In the report to be released Tuesday, the Office of the Special
Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, a federal oversight agency,
found that little of the reconstruction effort led by the U.S. Embassy
has succeeded in improving the dam. The office reviewed contracts worth
$27 million, but an embassy official said the total cost of the project
was $34 million.


The review found that a Turkish company, which was paid $635,000 for a
contract awarded 19 months ago to build storage silos for cement, had
done so little and such poor-quality work that its project may have to
be restarted. One company contracted to design grout-mixing plants
instead submitted plans for unusable concrete-mixing plants. High-tech
equipment meant to help grouting is gathering dust because it won't
work, according to investigators.


Embassy and Army Corps officials noted that it has been difficult to
conduct oversight of the project because it is in a dangerous area. They
said that contracts with the worst businesses have been terminated and
that steps have been taken to ensure better management of the project in
the future.


"Our focus is on whether the project that the Corps undertook got
carried out and the answer to that question is no," said Stuart W. Bowen
Jr., the special inspector general. "The expenditures of the money have
yielded no benefit yet."

Ancient Ninevah is modern day Mosul, Iraq. I thought this scripture was interesting, especially verse 8 and also with the upcoming peace talks. This scripture shows His anger against those who go against Israel.

An oracle concerning Nineveh. The book of the vision of Nahum the Elkoshite



The Lord 's Anger Against Nineveh
2 The LORD is a jealous and avenging God;
the LORD takes vengeance and is filled with wrath.
The LORD takes vengeance on his foes
and maintains his wrath against his enemies.
3 The LORD is slow to anger and great in power;
the LORD will not leave the guilty unpunished.
His way is in the whirlwind and the storm,
and clouds are the dust of his feet.

4 He rebukes the sea and dries it up;
he makes all the rivers run dry.
Bashan and Carmel wither
and the blossoms of Lebanon fade.

5 The mountains quake before him
and the hills melt away.
The earth trembles at his presence,
the world and all who live in it.

6 Who can withstand his indignation?
Who can endure his fierce anger?
His wrath is poured out like fire;
the rocks are shattered before him.

7 The LORD is good,
a refuge in times of trouble.
He cares for those who trust in him,

8 but with an overwhelming flood
he will make an end of Nineveh ;
he will pursue his foes into darkness.

9 Whatever they plot against the LORD
he [a] will bring to an end;
trouble will not come a second time.

10 They will be entangled among thorns
and drunk from their wine;
they will be consumed like dry stubble. [b]

11 From you, O Nineveh , has one come forth
who plots evil against the LORD
and counsels wickedness.

12 This is what the LORD says:
"Although they have allies and are numerous,
they will be cut off and pass away.
Although I have afflicted you, O Judah ,
I will afflict you no more.

13 Now I will break their yoke from your neck
and tear your shackles away."

14 The LORD has given a command concerning you, Nineveh :
"You will have no descendants to bear your name.
I will destroy the carved images and cast idols
that are in the temple of your gods.
I will prepare your grave,
for you are vile."

15 Look, there on the mountains,
the feet of one who brings good news,
who proclaims peace!
Celebrate your festivals, O Judah,
and fulfill your vows.
No more will the wicked invade you;
they will be completely destroyed.

Good spot!